Pop Vultures

The Emmy Awards are on Sunday night, and once again the Emmy voters will give awards to lots of very good shows, if not the best ones. Or perhaps I am still bitter about the shut-out of The Wire. In any case, it’s as good a time as any to predict who I think will win, despite the fact that I am always, always wrong about such things. Still, that’s never stopped me before.

5. Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
The contenders: Sally Field (Brothers and Sisters), Holly Hunter (Saving Grace), Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer), Glenn Close (Damages), and Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: SVU)
The prediction: If there’s a no-brainer category, it’s got to be this one. Glenn Close has already cleared a space on her mantel for this trophy. In her hands, the character of Patty Hewes manages to be kind yet spiteful, flawed yet strong, selfish yet…no, she’s pretty much selfish all the time. The series, particularly by the end of the first season, didn’t always make sense, but Close was always compelling to watch, whatever was going on around her. The others don’t stand a chance. Sally Field’s mother is consistently shrill and annoying and, besides, she’s won before. Holly Hunter and Kyra Sedgwick do strong work in shows that receive mixed reviews, and no one can even remember who Mariska Hargitay is. If you’re going to put money down in any category, this is the one.

4. Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
The contenders: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss (The New Adventures of Old Christine), Tina Fey (30 Rock), America Ferrara (Ugly Betty), Christina Applegate (Samantha Who?), Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)
The prediction: This one’s going to Tina Fey. Although Mary-Louise Parker does excellent work on Weeds, this comedy is a bit dark for the Emmy voters. Also, most of them don’t actually watch it, which is the same problem Julia Louis-Dreyfuss faces. America Ferrara’s already won it, and most people felt that the show’s second season was weaker than the first. Christina Applegate might be dark horse in this one, what with the sympathy votes she’s bound to get as a recent cancer survivor — everyone loves a good human interest story — but in the end, Emmy voters love 30 Rock, and Tina Fey’s star has been constantly on the rise this year.

3. Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series
The contenders: James Spader (Boston Legal), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Hugh Laurie (House), Gabriel Byrne (In Treatment), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), and Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
The prediction: This is a tough one to call, though conventional wisdom awards it to Jon Hamm, who’s riding a wave of Mad Man love at the moment. You can immediately eliminate Bryan Cranston and Gabriel Byrne, who do good work on two shows that no one watches. You can also eliminate James Spader, who does tolerable work on a show no one can take seriously. Hugh Laurie is, of course, consistently amazing as Gregory House, but he’s been so amazing for so long that it’s possible voters take him for granted. I’m going out on a limb and calling this one for Michael C. Hall, because he is the reason Dexter has been elevated from a somewhat disturbing procedural to one of the best shows on television. Plus, there’s always one out-of-left-field win, and I’m rooting for it to be this one. Mad Men’s going to get plenty of other love tonight. Still, if I were you, I probably wouldn’t put any money on this one. I’m pretty sure I’m just saying Hall because I really, really want him to get it.

2. Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
The contenders: Rainn Wilson (The Office), Kevin Dillon (Entourage), Jeremy Piven (Entourage), Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother), Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)
The prediction: NPH FTW! It’s not just my blind love of Barney Stinson that causes me to say that, either. Lots and lots of people don’t actually think Entourage is any funny, and those that do could very well split the vote between its two nominated actors. Two and a Half Men should never win any awards other than “Most Predictable Jokes Told in 30 Minutes.” That leaves us with Rainn Wilson and Harris. As Dwight, Wilson is consistently hilarious, but he’s also a really disturbing character. He doesn’t exactly leave the viewer with the need to reward him for creeping us out. And, really, this has been Neil Patrick Harris’s year, with the rousing success of Dr. Horrible in addition to HIMYM, and Emmy voters love a comeback. It’ll be close, but I think he’s got this one.

1. Outstanding Drama Series
The contenders: Lost, Mad Men, House, Dexter, Damages, Boston Legal
The prediction: With all the talk about the Mad Men love, now’s the time to back it up, and it has an excellent shot at this award. House is out of the running from the get go, despite an excellent season finale, because it basically tells the same stories over and over again. Dexter is far too dark a show to win the big prize, Damages has too many weak points, and the only person I’ve ever met that actually watched Boston Legal was my mother — and even she thought it was pretty silly. Lost had an excellent fourth season and has a very good shot at stealing this one away from Mad Men – particularly if lots of people secretly feel as I do, that Mad Men is an excellent show that doesn’t strongly resonate with them. I’m calling this one for Mad Men…but just, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lost takes home the big prize.

Your turn. Have a look at nominations and tell us who you think will win. Who do you want to win? And who would make you hang your head in despair if they one?